DS072-e130: The halls stood silent, implying by their presence that they were waiting for something. Rows of chairs looked as if they were only recently vacated, as if we were just too late to catch the main event, the flight. The reality of course is no-one had ever been here nor, given the astronomical odds, be here again but the place liked to keep up appearances, liked to play host to calm the mind.
I wish I could just listen to articles. My Audm is always on – usually Vanity Fair pieces about Republicans because I’m just a rubber-necker like you. Sometimes I come across long articles and (following last week’s comment about never having time) and wish I could listen to them instead of have to read them. I’m an excellent and eager multi-tasker, I can do a million other things while listening to articles but reading demands my full concentration and it’s another reason I resent it.
Saying that, I tired of trying to read ‘relevant’ non-fiction and finally opened Tom McCarthy’s Making of Incarnation which Justin recommended to me and it’s brilliant. I forgot that you’re allowed to just read fiction. I used to work in a bookshop, long before I took anything this seriously and just chose to read things I actually wanted to rather than things I felt I should.
It’s a great novel (so far) and Justin was bang on with the recommendation. It’s the only novel I’ve read that features Blender as a McGuffin. About a third in and we’ve already had a IP-minded conspiracy theory build around the back catalogue of Lillian Gilbreth, examined the inner working of a CGI and simulation company and got really into kinematic science. The reviews for it aren’t great but I’m loving the detail and world-building. It reminds me a little of Crying of Lot 49, this idea of a shady, diffident secret society on very specific technical grounds. It’s chock full of CGI terms and technology but turned towards this worldbuilding project. Years ago I wanted to do a project about the computer graphics industry as a political force, like small arms, tobacco or oil. What would they lobby for? How? What would make them so powerful and how would we live with them? Maybe I’ll do it one day still, McCarthy comes close.
I’m involved in writing a script at the moment at work and there’s something not quite right about it. I used to absorb myself in novels and worldbuilding projects when I was doing more speculative design stuff, not just sci-fi but Russian tragicomedy and Argentinian dramas. It’s helping a little to get back there again.
Recently
Week before last I was in Lisbon for Humane conference giving a sweeping overview of trends impacting the future of Higher Education and trying not to re-enter debates about digital learning I was deeply involved in in my previous role. If you’d like some Design Futures / Foresight stuff, get in touch!
Upcoming
I’m up in Manchester 4-8 July for a thing so if you’re around and want to meet up, please let me know!
Short Stuff
Very much enjoyed this excellent call for ‘Imaginology‘ from Stephen Asma. Something I’m super keen on promoting and normalising, the use of ‘icky’ things like intuition and imagination.
Check out this amazing short – ‘Revenge‘ – made by Leo Avero in Blender. There’s a strong Ian Hubert influence in there but it’s interesting because I think that Avero has drawn on limitations of hardware for stylistic decisions. For instance, there’s a slight ‘glitchiness’ to the visuals which I think are probably caused by noise filters that are creating interference every few frames. This would have meant much shorter render times but he’s then clearly embraced the effect for it’s ‘painterly quality.’ The characters look a little clay-like, again reducing rendering time without sub-surface and animation time without needing to get super human-like motion. I can also see other influences in there which I adore, Control for one in the office scenes. Anyway, check it out:
Some useful ideas of what a good Web3 might look like, basically, the opposite of the current Web3. I enjoyed this much more nuanced and detailed exploration of Web3 that delves into some of the contradictions and behind the veneer of scams and heists – Paradise at the Crypto Arcade on Wired.
Perhaps a small step toward a general AI – Gato – which can recognise images, play game, respond to chat and control a robot arm. Simple suff but all in one package.
DS069-e406: What we knew was appalling. It couldn’t have been described another way. Once we saw it move we knew where it must have been going. Though the strange, creaking roll that went before it had seemed innocent enough, it was obvious, on turning the corner, what was going on: The walls were literally closing in. There could be no comprehending of why here, only the presumption that somewhere, far, far away something else must be shrinking as these wall grew. It is true that you can’t simply create new stuff isn’t it? It has to come from somewhere.
It can be really hard explaining something that seems so incredibly obvious to oneself. I have little problem unpicking the thread of an intricate story of causal connections and showing their significance but it can be daunting trying to explain the significance of something that until that point had seemed entirely understood, at least to me.
Imagination Stagnation
This is hardly an original or staggering suggestion but in a couple of conversations this week about the metaverse etc. etc. I was just really struck by the profound lack of imagination that the supposed visionaries, and movers and shakers have. It also I suppose follows from last week’s post that what I’m really interested in, and always have been is in shaking up and broadening the imagination of what could be. The complete stagnation or deflation of future imaginaries in popular culture is sometimes overwhelming. It’s quite difficult to articulate the ways in which ‘the future’ feels like a sad and disappointing place. We seem to be caught in a downward spiral, race-to-the-bottom, low-stakes-high-return imagination infrastructure. One in which novelty for its own sakes is rewarded, the offset of future returns become an object of speculation and the present is packaged as the past of the inevitable future.
An easy part of this story of imagination collapse is the dogged pursuit of science fiction technologies at the cost of, and in preference to, the imagining of new things. Re-wrapping vintage ideas or things borrowed from science fiction, either directly or by collective osmosis is used as a cover for the actual imagining of new things. By this process old ideas are recycled into a new form, often detached from the critical context in which they were meant to exist and be given meaning. I’ve talked about this loads using Minority Report as an early example. Minority Report, a 2001 film critiquing the hubris of predictive technology and surveillance became a guiding star for the development of surveillance and predictive technologies. More recently we see Neal Stephenson’s metaverse, Ready Player One and The Matrix signposted as imaginative hallmarks of the future being brought into being by big tech money. Like Minority Report, these are all stories bewaring or critical of exactly the vision being promulgated yet they have been re-gifted as opportunities for real social and technical futures. Jay Springett, referencing Andrew Dana Hudson calls this ‘cultural fracking’ – ‘mining the past for new material.’
It’s new so it must be good
This re-wrapping, fracking, whatever you want to call it goes hand-in-hand with another strategy; a prevailing novelty bias. Things are presented as important or valuable simply because they are new rather than because they have any innate practical purpose; novelty itself has become a valuable property of innovation. Now, this has somewhat always been the story of innovation. Trevor Pinch and Wiebe Bijker have written extensively about the issue of ‘problem definition’ – the way that most new inventions are emergent or coincidental rather than intentional and so secondly have to find a problem that they solve in order to become valuable. But it seems increasingly that part two can be skipped altogether, that defining a problem and demonstrating how your invention solves it is no longer necessary for it to accrue enormous social and financial value. This is easy to see in web3/crypto/metaverse where, as so many have pointed out, the problems of wealth and social inequality in web 2 aren’t being solved so much as accelerated to their worst conclusion under the pretence of newness.
But even outside of the insanity of crypto, in the establishment of Silicon Valley there are signs of the well of imagination running dry: The Apple release schedule was, for a time, the hallmark of genuine innovation. Cult-like reverence aside, the release of the iPhone brought a genuinely significant shift in culture as did, to lesser degrees, new iOS’, MacBooks, watches, and so on. But Apple releases now are just marginal improvements on the products before; better camera, claims of better battery life, faster processors. Watch any Apple keynote and count the times the presenter says ‘most up-to-date processor,’ or ‘newest battery’ or ‘latest screen’ as if the passing of time itself is somehow a remarkable innovation that the company has mastered.
This particularly stuck out to me in the 2020 keynote in which Apple covered their commercially convenient separation from Intel as an innovative opportunity to create new M1 chips by showcasing how well a seven-year old game now played on their computers. This big video game statement piece from Apple, defying all reasonable marketing sense, came just a month after the launch of that Unreal 5 trailer (ok that was a a genuine jaw-to-the-floor thing.) By this logic, Apple should be able to run Unreal 5 by 2028. Despite this remarkable out-of-datedness in their actual usefulness, they are still ‘new’ machines and so are valued simply for being the latest rather than actually being any good.
Everything will be alright on the night
But why is newness or novelty so alluring to the popular imagination? In the case of Apple, brand loyalty is a piece of it but that doesn’t excuse or explain the explosion of crypto scams. No, to turn newness into value you have to add potential: That new Apple camera with machine learning in it has the potential to make you a great photographer. This potential does not solve any of the problems of terrible battery life and wasteful product lifecycles but it sells you a future of potential.
Newness itself, even when it’s not actually anything new at all is endowed with value because newness has been equated with the ethereal quality of the promise of potential. For example, NFT token launches appear to be indiscernible from each other; a selection of hastily produced cartoon avatars, a discord ‘community,’ notional promises of a game and movie franchise all followed by a promise of vast returns to everyone who got on board early at some future point. There’s nothing fundamentally imaginative or actually novel in any of them. In fact they are almost entirely indistinguishable without any unique qualities whatsoever, but their newness is their most valuable property. Their ‘freshness’ is the only delineating factor. Each one is only valuable as long as it’s new because as long as it’s new it has the potential to be actually valuable (as a handful of others have before) and it’s this speculative potential that seizes the imagination of buyers rather than any actual utility.
Which leads to one of the final factors; ‘promissory rhetorics,’ a phrase I borrow a lot from elish and Boyd. This is the use of rhetorics by proponents that excuse or distract from failures, shortcomings or issues in the present because of the promise of inevitable success of the future venture. You can see this all the time in the ‘potential’ of crypto in what ‘will’ happen as a cover for the actual failures and deception that is going on now. Even so-called ‘utility tokens’ are ‘potentially’ going to change the world even as they actually do very little and there appear to be no (again I’ve asked but people tell me to ‘do my own research’ – so please send links) actual examples of blockchain-associated technologies that aren’t deployed for the pursuit of profit. In this rhetorical framework, the actual lived-experience of the present as well as present tendencies, biases and motivations (which are mostly to get rich as quickly as possible) are excused because at some point in the future will be a massive technological and attitudinal shift in which we all live in a web3 utopia. You most often hear this refrain in some form of; ‘Yes it’s not great at the moment but the potential is amazing.’
If we’re to expand on the Pinch and Bijker’s ‘problem definition’ (1: Invent thing. 2: Figure out what it solves) then now we have 1: Invent thing. 2: Cause more problems/make things worse overall. 3: Convince people that those problems are a necessary and painful hurdle of a much better, long-term outcome that will arrive at some point, some how. I’m sure some people genuinely believe and are invested in this imaginative potential but the mechanics of how this transition happens are almost never discussed.
There’s usually very little critical reflection on why an entire culture built around the premise of being able to get rich incredibly quickly would suddenly change its entire moral stance toward the accumulation of profit. Or further, how this system would revolutionise or overturn the existing institutions and companies that are doing just fine as things are.
Promissory rhetorics also have the effect of offsetting the need to work on imagining new things because at some point someone else will do it for you and everything will fall into place: The entire value system of web 3 will shift from profit accumulation to some sort of system of social value creation one day, the technology required to prevent fraud and deception will be developed, the mechanisms that encourage them will be dismantled. (See also how long Ethereum has been promising to move to proof of stake.) (The Portuguese sometimes call this Sebastianism – that’s a whole other thing though.) We are convinced we live in the past of a pre-destined future.
I would argue, however, that the most characteristic [future visioning] does not seriously attempt to imagine the “real” future of our social system. Rather, its multiple mock futures serve the quite different function of transforming our own present into the determinate past of something yet to come.
Jameson, F. (1982). Progress versus Utopia; Or, Can We Imagine the Future? Science Fiction Studies. 9(2). p.153
Imagining the Worst
So, faced with a foreclosure of imagination brought about by the reverence of the new, the promise of inevitable success and a sort of muted set of expectations, are there ways to tactically counter-imagine?
..there is a widening gulf between what humanity is able to create and what humans are able to imagine… Anders believed that people had to imagine not just floating cities and space rockets, but irradiated ruins and nuclear missiles. After all, imaging the future and realistically predicting the future are quite different things.
Cue this article in Real Life about the work and philosophy of Gunther Anders’ futurism – ‘The Balance of Terrors.’ Anders, who was forecasting through the Cold War and the very real threat of nuclear apocalypse advocated for fear and for imagining the worst. He resisted protests that it was weak, defeatist or pessimistic to imagine the worst outcomes but advocated that it gave a richer understanding of possibility. Importantly, he pointed out that disaster scenarios were much more likely than the utopian stories meant as a distraction from them but popular imagination struggled to imagine them:
Utopians are unable to actually produce what they are able to visualize, we are unable to visualize what we are actually producing.
This is a variation on the foreclosure argument; that by bombarding the popular imagination with the sales pitch of your future vision you obscure and obfuscate any alternatives. Anders’ pitch was that you should imagine the very worst outcome to challenge the Utopians.
To do this, in the specific examples of nuclear weapons, he developed an interesting philosophical framework – ‘the reprieve.’ Essentially, the extinction of humanity is a guaranteed future event. It is going to happen. The aim is then to put it off for as long as possible. This is in the same way that web 3 will liberate us all from the oppression of institutions or will liberate the web but suddenly the project of survival demands much more personal and real investment and action than the offsetting of some utopia that no one actually wants to will into being because they’re all so busy profiting off the present. In other words, while being happy and making lots of money in the present, people will act to put off imagined disaster but won’t act to bring forward imagined utopia.
Is this justification for doomsaying? There’s a feeling I get whenever someone chastises me for being pessimistic or negative that, you know, maybe I am. Maybe my imagination isn’t mature enough to grasp the incredible possibilities of this web 3 future. But then, the optimists never actually have to be right, they just have to convince everyone else that one day they will be right while the pessimists have to hope that they might be wrong, which sounds like more meaningful work.
As usual, I don’t know how to end my diatribe. There are other dimensions to this other than pessimism. I’m increasingly buoyed by the imagination of abundant and optimistic futures coming from outside of the tech space. I’m also eager to see what happens with Cassie Robinson’s work on imagination infrastructure. I like this idea that imagination should be a public utility, not something that is the preserve of big tech.
Recent
had a follow-up interview with Scratching the Surface talking about my new role and job and reflecting a little more on higher education. It’s up for Patreons to Jarrett’s amazing project here. The original interview I did is up here or at any podcast host.
Short Stuff
I’m deep in Severance and like many of you, entranced by it. The problem with great TV is it has to end and that inevitably means disappointment because there’s an imperative to reveal the mysteries for narrative resolution and closure. But what if like Control, they don’t? What if it’s just ‘this world is weird and your human brain is too small to understand why so you just call it weird?’ What if it didn’t ever resolve but just kept spiralling into more and more strangeness?
Also the similarities to Control, even aesthetically, are too numerous for it not to have influenced Severance.
I’ve ordered Danah Abdulla’s new book ‘Designerly Ways of Knowing.’ The title, I imagine is a clever barb to Nigel Cross, somewhat responsible for the risible omnipresence of design thinking. It’s a literal litany of things designers should know. Why is ‘designerly’ not a recognised adjective?
Via Cameron Tonkinwise, this plant that can mimic other plants can also mimic fake plants which throws everything up in the air really.
I still like quantum tech, it’s not yet been absorbed by the prosaic emphasis of tech companies on production, advertising and consumption. Now it might charge cars faster. Great. Love it. Still think the solution to cars is just to get rid of cars but great.
Ok that’s it. This one started short, went long, is incoherent and messy but that’s why this is a blog and not a journal article. Love you of course, and I hope you know that.
DS060: A petrol (or gas) station at night. Two cars are hung from a steel ibeam and rotate slowly around the middle of the forecourt, like a big car mobile.
I finally got around to setting up the subscription service to this blog. So if you’d rather get these posts by email you can sign up down there ↙. Unfortunately, the animations won’t embed but you’ll get a nice still image. If you’re one of the fifty-odd folks already subscribed then welcome! Last week was a bit of a test, please send me any feedback on the email version. You can click through to see the animation, or they’re all on Instagram.
DS060
This week I decided to play around with some methods for photorealism. To be clear, the cars are found models from CGTrader already textured but the rest of the scene is done by me. Cars are whole projects in themselves but useful assets and I’m not into them enough to start modelling them by hand. I used various photos from petrol station from the internet to do some project-from-view UV mapping of the pumps, bins etc. similar to this method. There’s a big cube volume in there for depth and mood and then straightforward lighting. Following last week, I’ve found that adding in noise post-render undoes some of the painterly-ness of the de-noisers. All in all actually quite straightforward this week.
Prognostications
I missed this piece way back in 2020 – the promissory year of the self-driving car – untangling the complexities and hype to explain why we still didn’t have self-driving cars (spolier: we still don’t.) It’s rare to get excited about the future now, I think, for most. There are glimpses of it around elections and announcements but it often disappoints. I can never tell if it’s me that’s changed or the world, but the hysteria around a new iPhone or service seems to have vanished a little from the world. The excited word-of-mouth chatter for a new app or gadget has been replaced by rabid zealotry met with bitter dismissal. I’m looking forward to the remastered release of Witcher 3, though.
Anyway, rather than do a year-in-review of 2021 (which sounds like a lot of work) I thought I’d trawl some things from some of the articles that proliferate around this time of year about predictions for the coming twelve months, adjust or add my thoughts.
Fusion and Quantum enter the rhetorical arena. Azeem Azhar highlights the dramatic increases in funding for both quantum computing and nuclear fusion that 20/21 have seen. He did a great podcast episodes about both these technologies here and here. These are both technologies that seem reasonably exciting in actual application. Based on the financing alone, these seem like reasonably sure predictions but I’d add that I would also expect them both to get sucked into the rhetoric-hype vortex of silicon valley as a result of the increased funding interest. The tragedy is going to be seeing them put to the service of social networks and/or so-called AI in the pursuit of power. We might expect to see ‘quantum’ in particular dropped more and more into advertising and pitches to boost hype while (like AI) the technology itself is still in a very formative state.
You built it and now they’ve come: Crypto-exclusionism. Quite possibly the emergence of a social division between crypto people and non-crypto people. My views on this are pretty-well known if you read this: It all seems to be a technology that, despite the feverish defences put up, is being adopted by those in the relentless pursuit of the accumulation of personal wealth. The grotesque and rapid accumulation of personal wealth is regrettably one of the greatest drivers of the adoption of new technology and so crypto is now probably here to stay. (About ten years ago I mined SolarCoin in our studio and that was my first and last dabble.) A good test is to ask someone to explain crypto to you without mentioning money. I’m always up for hearing another argument or rationalisation but I have yet to hear it. Either way, similar to early social networks, as services become crypto-normalised, those who don’t engage may find certain services and products out of reach. Tech-exclusionism has impacted transportation already pretty severely in places where Uber et al have taken root and so the spread of crypto across digital transactions will probably exclude non-adopters; non-adopters of choice (like me) and those who are on the other side of the digital divide. Cryypto, like ‘digital’, ‘social’, ‘connected’ will just be in things without the need for its own prefix. Crypto will probably continue to be incredibly divisive in a way that things like smart phones, self-driving cars and even so-called AI, aren’t. You see, even the most fervent luddite can see the potential application of so-called AI in faster and more accurate medical diagnosis or climate modelling even if we need to scrutinise and critique the methods and tools. But with crypto, the voices of people working on more than the money need to be amplified. Tangentially, an even darker prediction is that the inevitable crypto crash will lead in the deeper entrenchment of right wing extremism, particularly in the US.
No rise of the machines. The Wall Street Journal has put together its predictions for next year. Nothing particularly surprising: More gadgets and gizmos aimed at dealing with manufactured inconveniences than anything meaningful. However, there’s a peculiar leaning on robotics in the domestic sphere, both delivery bots and chore-bots. I really struggle with seeing the story of these machines; why would anyone want them? They can move things around, sure, but they require a bunch of extra work from users to look after, charge, store etc. The dream of robots in the home is almost 150 years old and I don’t think 2022 is the year we’ll see it manifest.
Curiously muted AI expectations. Unusually, this report from the AI world implies more humility and pragmatism in the gradual, incremental developments of the field. That doesn’t mean the hype will go away but perhaps part of the normalisation of AI is it’s sublimation into other processes and the background noise of general technological innovation rather than big blowout AI-specific announcements. As above with crypto, we’re less likely to see ‘smart’ or ‘intelligent’ highlighted as advertising gimmicks as they’ll just be expected to be part of things in the same way ‘digital’ and ‘connected’ are.
Planetary Design. Alice Rawsthorn put it beautifully here. I think it’s increasingly going to be accepted as a mainstream approach to design in practice to think on planetary and giga scales about design interventions in the environment as well as the role that design has in communicating and conceptualising large systemic change. There’s been a flurry of new degrees established in the UK to corner this demand and work I’ve done with clients over the last year has shown that non-designers are developing an understanding of the potential.
Gamification of Fitness. It’s a little like smart fridges; there are gradual, incremental improvements but you really don’t need a gadget to know you ate too many doughnuts any more than you need a notification to know you’re out of milk. For some, maybe data does change behaviour (I know it works with my cycling) but in this prediction, health data is artificially loaded with financial value which reads a little bit like the Chinese social credit system but for corporations to profit off. The hope is that by being fitter, you become more ‘valuable’ in the most literal cosplay of Foucauldian biopolitics ever instantiated. It’s unclear why you would be more financially valuable by having a fitter or healthier dataset when everything from private health insurance to diet plans to medical research relies on you being unfit or at least paranoid about your fitness to profit.
Lifespan and reusability.This is a bit of a no-brainer. Partly due to ‘reading the room,’ partly because of actual legislation and partly because of the material issues in the next point, we may be seeing the end of the age of planned obsolescence. This has all sorts of implications for insurers and manufacturers but perhaps we’ll see them begin to tackle the enormous wastage of gadgetry. I would expect that this year or next we’d start to see lifespan and reusability as a marketing pitch on mainstream devices. Repair and reuse might also start to enter design curricula not as a novelty but as a fundamental.
It’s the coke, stupid. We had inklings of this with thing like the Evergiven crisis but 2022 could really be the year that the hidden material cost of tech starts to bite. The cost of silicon and chip manufacturing has been increasing through COVID but has also been affected by the environmental cost of turning Bauxite into Silicon crystals which requires huge amounts of coking coal, mostly supplied by China. But in other areas too are similar issues, a European requires about 15 tons of steel – also a coke-intensive process and other countries are catching up with this demand. There aren’t currently alternatives to the manufacturing processes of key materials like silicon and steel so the simple response is to stop using them. Canon has removed DRM chips from printer cartridges, ironically packaging chips with instructions on how to bypass the DRM.
I’m biased of course because my gut tells me that people are ready to turn away from technocentric solutionism and that there’s a popular and growing mistrust of Silicon Valley to deliver the utopias it’s promised as demonstrated through (for one example) the succession of issues that Facebook has faced but also the rising cost of living due to material and energy costs. Anyway, I won’t review these at the end of the year because they’ll be wrong.
The future is not only useless, its expensive. Well-written description of the dispiriting vacuousness of crypto culture. It’s a bit snobby on culture – I firmly believe that people like what they like and that their right – but the general notion of financial exploitation is great.
Again relatedly, Brad Troemel’s NFT Report, online now for free is a really great analysis of the bubble.
This report on the state of Web 3 has been getting a lot of attention. The tldr is: Web 3 is just Web 2 dressed up in clothes with less privacy but people are making money off it so they don’t care.
That was by no means everything. I’m doing an interview in two weeks where I’ve been asked to assemble some ‘weak signals’ – are there any ‘weak’ signals anymore? Feels like everything is pretty loud. Anyway, you know what I’m going to say. – that I love you. It’s my affectation for these blogs but it’s always important to let you know, I think. Also, my time is a little bit freer at the moment so let me know if you’d like to catch up, in person (fully boosted up here) or via teleconferencing. Have a great week.